The Uncertainty Of The Epidemic VS The Certainty Of Inflation

The recent tungsten market as a whole maintains a stable and bullish momentum. The upstream tungsten ore suppliers are reluctant to sell, and traders increase their stockpile efforts. APT companies sign annual long-term orders, powder manufacturers are saturated with orders, and alloy companies issue price increases. The concentrated release of other positive factors has made the current market performance obviously optimistic, but for the expectations of the post-holiday market, it seems that everyone’s bullish confidence is not very sufficient, but overall, the uncertainty of the epidemic and the certainty of inflation are relatively large. Influencing factors. At present, the global epidemic is still intensifying. The number of infections this month is likely to exceed 100 million. The new US President will increase vaccine promotion and community control to promote epidemic prevention measures such as wearing masks. US pharmaceutical companies will speed up vaccine production and delivery. The epidemic in China may reach its peak late in the first quarter. The measures to lock down cities and countries in Europe are still being extended. Due to the lack of vaccine production scale, the overall epidemic control should be later than that in the United States, and it is expected to be improved in the second quarter. Northeast Asia, China, Japan, and South Korea are currently relatively well controlled, and China's vaccines have increased their production scale to improve efficiency. It is estimated that the vaccine will be gradually promoted in a well-controlled environment in the first half of the year. Japan and South Korea are also expected to receive vaccines from multiple countries to achieve anti-epidemic improvements. . However, more than three new viruses have emerged from the mutation of the new coronavirus. It is difficult to determine whether the existing vaccine can keep up with the prevention and control requirements of the mutated virus. The inflection point of global cases is still a long time. When will foreign manufacturers purchase supplements? The goods are still unknown. In addition, the epidemic in China has occasionally started to appear in multiple places at the same time. Northeast China is more serious. Although it has not yet affected the main tungsten production areas of Jiangxi and Hunan, the temporary problem is not big, but the market is still one month after the holiday. It is uncertain whether it will get worse, so the uncertainty of the epidemic can only be judged according to the progress of time. 　　 The certainty of inflation is already very obvious, and it will push up all asset products. The new US president proposed a stimulus plan of US$1.9 trillion before he took office. So far, there have been two rounds of stimulus of 2.2+2.3 trillion US dollars in the epidemic. In addition, the 1.9 trillion US dollars this time will release 6.4 trillion US dollars of liquidity. In the global market, as China is currently the safest investment destination, a large wave of liquidity will surely flow in. Gold, silver, stocks, futures, spot non-ferrous products, and black products are all likely to rise, while the tungsten market is not directly exposed. For turbulent liquidity, tungsten can hardly be alone when everything is rising. According to comprehensive analysis, the tungsten market before the holiday has only one week of active period left. In the later period, it will face a state of no market. The short-term tungsten concentrate to 90,000, and the APT station to 135,000 are all one step, but after the holiday Whether the market can continue to rise depends on everyone's operating conditions and the impact of the epidemic. If there are not too many restrictions, it is expected that the market will resume normal purchases when the stocks are almost digested, and a new wave of market is expected to start.